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Scientific model shows that for every 1 child saved from dying with Covid-19 over 117 will be killed by the Covid-19 Vaccine

A risk-benefit model shows that 5,248 children aged 5 to 11 will be killed by the Pfizer mRNA injection in order to save 45 children from dying of Coronavirus.

The Centre for Disease Control’s “Guidance” document describes 21 things that every health economics study in connection with vaccines must do. But the Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) woeful risk-benefit analysis in connection with Pfizer’s Emergency Use Authorisation (EUA) application to inject children aged 5 to 11 with an experimental gene therapy violates many of these principles.


By Dr Toby Rogers


Today I want to focus on a single factor: the Number Needed to Vaccinate (NNTV). In four separate places the CDC Guidance document mentions the importance of coming up with a Number Needed to Vaccinate (NNTV). I did not recall seeing an NNTV in the FDA risk-benefit document. So I checked the FDA’s risk-benefit analysis again and sure enough, there was no mention of an NNTV.

Because the FDA failed to provide an NNTV, I will attempt to provide it here.

First a little background. The Number Needed to Treat (NNT) in order to prevent a single case, hospitalization, ICU admission, or death, is a standard way to measure the effectiveness of any drug. It’s an important tool because it enables policymakers to evaluate tradeoffs between a new drug, a different existing drug, or doing nothing. In vaccine research the equivalent term is Number Needed to Vaccinate (NNTV, sometimes also written as NNV) in order to prevent a single case, hospitalization, ICU admission, or death (those are 4 different NNTVs that one could calculate).

Pharma HATES talking about NNTV and they hate talking about NNTV even more when it comes to COVID-19 vaccines because the NNTV is so ridiculously high that this vaccine could not pass any honest risk-benefit analysis.

Indeed about a year ago I innocently asked on Twitter what the NNTV is for coronavirus vaccines.

Pharma sent a swarm of trolls in to attack me and Pharma goons published hits pieces on me outside of Twitter to punish me for even asking the question. Of course none of the Pharma trolls provided an estimate of the NNTV for COVID-19 shots. That tells us that we are exactly over the target.

Various health economists have calculated a NNTV for COVID-19 vaccines.

  • Ronald Brown, a health economist in Canada, estimated that the NNTV to prevent a single caseof coronavirus is from 88 to 142.
  • Others have calculated the NNTV to prevent a single case at 256.
  • German and Dutch researchers, using a large (500k) data set from a field study in Israel calculated an NNTV between 200 and 700 to prevent one case of COVID-19 for the mRNA shot marketed by Pfizer. They went further and figured out that the “NNTV to prevent one death is between 9,000 and 100,000 (95% confidence interval), with 16,000 as a point estimate.”

You can see why Pharma hates this number so much (I can picture Pharma’s various PR firms sending out an “All hands on deck!” message right now to tell their trolls to attack this article). One would have to inject a lot of people to see any benefit and the more people who are injected the more the potential benefits are offset by the considerable side-effects from the shots.

Furthermore, the NNTV to prevent a single case is not a very meaningful measure because most people, particularly children, recover on their own (or even more quickly with ivermectin if treated early). The numbers that health policy makers should really want to know are the NNTV to prevent a single hospitalization, ICU admission, or death. But with the NNTV to prevent a single case already so high, and with significant adverse events from coronavirus vaccines averaging about 15% nationwide, Pharma and the FDA dare not calculate an NNTV for hospitalizations, ICU, and deaths, because then no one would ever take this product (bye bye $93 billion in annual revenue).


Increased all cause mortality in the Pfizer clinical trial of adults


As Bobby Kennedy explains, Pfizer’s clinical trial in adults showed alarming increases in all cause mortality in the vaccinated:

In Pfizer’s 6 month clinical trial in adults — there was 1 covid death out of 22,000 in the vaccine (“treatment”) group and 2 Covid deaths out of 22,000 in the placebo group (see Table s4). So NNTV = 22,000. The catch is there were 5 heart attack deaths in the vaccine group and only 1 in placebo group. So for every 1 life saved from Covid, the Pfizer vaccine kills 4 from heart attacks. All cause mortality in the 6 month study was 20 in vaccine group and 14 in placebo group. So a 42% all cause mortality increase among the vaccinated. The vaccine loses practically all efficacy after 6 months so they had to curtail the study. They unblinded and offered the vaccine to the placebo group. At that point the rising harm line had long ago intersected the sinking efficacy line.

Former NY Times investigative reporter Alex Berenson also wrote about the bad outcomes for the vaccinated in the Pfizer clinical trial in adults (here). Berenson received a lifetime ban from Twitter for posting Pfizer’s own clinical trial data.

Pfizer learned their lesson with the adult trial and so when they conducted a trial of their mRNA vaccine in children ages 5 to 11 they intentionally made it too small (only 2,300 participants) and too short (only followed up for 2 months) in order to hide harms.


Estimating an NNTV in children ages 5 to 11 using Pfizer’s own clinical trial data


All of the NNTV estimates above are based on data from adults. In kids the NNTV will be even higher (the lower the risk, the higher the NNTV to prevent a single bad outcome). Children ages 5 to 11 are at extremely low risk of death from coronavirus. In a meta-analysis combining data from 5 studies, Stanford researchers Cathrine Axfors and John Ioannidis found a median infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.0027% in children ages 0-19. In children ages 5 to 11 the IFR is even lower. Depending on the study one looks at, COVID-19 is slightly less dangerous or roughly equivalent to the flu in children.

So how many children would need to be injected with Pharma’s mRNA shot in order to prevent a single hospitalization, ICU admission, or death?

Let’s examine Pfizer’s EUA application and the FDA’s risk-benefit analysis. By Pfizer’s own admission, there were zero hospitalization, ICU admissions, or deaths, in the treatment or control group in their study of 2,300 children ages 5 to 11.

So the Number Needed to Vaccinate in order to prevent a single hospitalization, ICU admission, or death, according to Pfizer’s own data, is infinity. ∞. Not the good kind of infinity as in God or love or time or the universe. This is the bad kind of infinity as in you could vaccinate every child age 5 to 11 in the U.S. and not prevent a single hospitalization, ICU admission, or death from coronavirus according to Pfizer’s own clinical trial data as submitted to the FDA. Of course Pfizer likes this kind of infinity because it means infinite profits. [Technically speaking the result is “undefined” because mathematically one cannot divide by zero, but you get my point.]


Estimating an NNTV and risk-benefit model in children ages 5 to 11 using the limited data that are available


Everyone knows that Pfizer was not even trying to conduct a responsible clinical trial of their mRNA shot in kids ages 5 to 11. Pfizer could have submitted to the FDA a paper napkin with the words “Iz Gud!” written in crayon and the VRBPAC would have approved the shot. They are all in the cartel together and they are all looking forward to their massive payoff/payday.

But let’s not be like Pharma. Instead, let’s attempt to come up with a best guess estimate based on real world data. Over time, others will develop a much more sophisticated estimate (for example, Walach, Klement, & Aukema, 2021 estimated an NNTV for 3 different populations based on “days post dose”). But for our purposes here I think there is a much easier way to come up with a ballpark NNTV estimate for children ages 5 to 11.

Here’s the benefits model:

  • As of October 30, 2021, the CDC stated that 170 children ages 5 to 11 have died of COVID-19-related illness since the start of the pandemic. (That represents less than 0.1% of all coronavirus-related deaths nationwide even though children that age make up 8.7% of the U.S. population).
  • The Pfizer mRNA shot only “works” for about 6 months (it increases risk in the first month, provides moderate protection in months 2 through 4 and then effectiveness begins to wane, which is why all of the FDA modeling only used a 6 month time-frame). So any modeling would have to be based on vaccine effectiveness in connection with the 57 (170/3) children who might otherwise have died of COVID-related illness during a 6-month period.
  • At best, the Pfizer mRNA shot might be 80% effective against hospitalizations and death. That number comes directly from the FDA modeling (p. 32). I am bending over backwards to give Pfizer the benefit of considerable doubt because again, the Pfizer clinical trial showed NO reduction in hospitalizations or death in this age group. So injecting all 28,384,878 children ages 5 to 11 with two doses of Pfizer (which is what the Biden administration wants to do) would save, at most, 45 lives (0.8 effectiveness x 57 fatalities that otherwise would have occurred during that time period = 45).
  • So then the NNTV to prevent a single fatality in this age group is 630,775 (28,384,878 / 45). But it’s a two dose regimen so if one wants to calculate the NNTV per injection the number doubles to 1,261,550. It’s literally the worst NNTV in the history of vaccination.

If you inject that many children, you certainly will have lots and lots of serious side effects including disability and death. So let’s look at the risk side of the equation.

Here’s the risk model:

  • Because the Pfizer clinical trial has no useable data, I have to immuno-bridge from the nearest age group.
  • 31,761,099 people (so just about 10% more people than in the 5 to 11 age bracket) ages 12 to 24 have gotten at least one coronavirus shot.
  • The COVID-19 vaccine program has only existed for 10 months and younger people have only had access more recently (children 12 to 15 have had access for five months; since May 10) — so we’re looking at roughly the same observational time period as modeled above.
  • During that time, there are 128 reports of fatal side effects following coronavirus mRNA injections in people 12 to 24. (That’s through October 22, 2021. There is a reporting lag though so the actual number of reports that have been filed is surely higher).
  • Kirsch, Rose, and Crawford (2021) estimate that VAERS undercounts fatal reactions by a factor of 41 which would put the total fatal side effects in this age-range at 5,248. (Kirsch et al. represents a conservative estimate because others have put the underreporting factor at 100.)
  • With potentially deadly side effects including myo- and pericarditis disproportionately impacting youth it is reasonable to think that over time the rate of fatal side effects from mRNA shots in children ages 5 to 11 might be similar to those in ages 12 to 24.

So, to put it simply, the Biden administration plan would kill 5,248 children via Pfizer mRNA shots in order to save 45 children from dying of coronavirus.

For every one child saved by the shot, another 117 would be killed by the shot.

The Pfizer mRNA shot fails any honest risk-benefit analysis in children ages 5 to 11.

Even under the best circumstances, estimating NNTV and modeling risk vs. benefits is fraught. In the current situation, with a new and novel bioengineered virus, where Pfizer’s data are intentionally underpowered to hide harms, and the FDA, CDC, & Biden Administration are doing everything in their power to push dangerous drugs on kids, making good policy decisions is even more difficult.

If the FDA or CDC want to calculate a different NNTV (and explain how they arrived at that number) I’m all ears. But we all know that the FDA refused to calculate an NNTV not because they forgot, but because they knew the number was so high that it would destroy the case for mRNA vaccines in children this age. Your move CDC — your own Guidance document states that you must provide this number.


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Elize Annandale
Elize Annandale

Elwood day, were can we get the studies? The material that was used for this article. It wil be very useful to start a court case to stop the vaccine mandates.

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11 days ago

[…] November 21, 2021Scientific model shows that for every 1 child saved from dying with Covid-19 over 117 will be killed… […]

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11 days ago

[…] – Scientific model shows that for every 1 child saved from dying with Covid-19 over 117 will be killed… […]

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10 days ago

[…] Read more: Scientific model shows that for every 1 child ALLEGEDLY saved from dying with ‘Covid-19&#8217… […]

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10 days ago

[…] 21. november 2021 The Expose: Scientific model shows that for every 1 child saved from dying with Covid-19 over 117 will be killed… […]

Lancer
Lancer
10 days ago

An excellent analysis. Other than our gut feeling that these injections are doing more harm than good it’s been extremely difficult to source anything that goes toward proving that fact for the layman.

Since witnessing this apparent failure of the jab in actually functioning like an inoculation (and now all the talking heads saying that’s not what its function was initially designed to do, yet it was called “a vaccine”) in the PHE’s COVID-19 Vaccine Weekly Surveillance Reports it’s clearly demonstrating that even if these injections are reducing severe illness (debateable as your article demonstrates concerning factors other than covid), we’re still infecting more people along the way given those vaccinated are up to twice as likely, sometimes more, to catch and therefore presumably spread the virus compared to the unvaccinated (over age 29, per 100,000).

So how then do you figure out what the impact would be without this intervention since it would appear it’s not only attributing to the endless circulation of the virus but what collateral damage is this intervention doing itself? Precisely why you need this NNTV objective for a truer picture, not to mention a strict placebo control group of suitable size to compare, otherwise it’s extremely hard to argue anything and I suspect is why without these fundamental provisions being imposed it’s become the method for touting supposed success.

Again, thank you for your informative investigation.

Paul Prichard
Paul Prichard
10 days ago

People shouldn’t be mislabelling anti-authoritarians as anti-vaxxers.
Your alternative update on #COVID19 for 2021-11-19. USA cases of myo/pericarditis have jumped 1200X, 150k dead a/ jab. Masks: No Evidence of Benefit (link).

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10 days ago

[…] Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) April 27, 2021 Scientific model shows that for every 1 child saved from dying with Covid-19 over 117 will be killed… UK STUDY — Vaccinated Adults under 60 are dying at 2X Times the rate of the […]

Melissa
Melissa
9 days ago

One of those dubious websites that appeals to scientific illiterates and plays loose with the facts not backed up by empirical data or credible studies. This is typical of those that make specious claims not backed up with substance that appeals to reactionaries and those that fall for pseudo science

Phillis
Phillis
Reply to  Melissa
9 days ago

Perhaps you would like to enlighten the rest of us by stating something of some substance and providing your scientific proof then, if you are attacking others – then I think it is for YOU to prove that these jabs are a good idea. You are clearly not aware that up to 70% of science (most corporate science) is fraudulent? I encourage you to have a serious look at the “other” side. I did, and I found the official narrative to be extensively lacking and corrupted. Try reading some books written by ex-editors of some of the world’s major esteemed medical literature publications, for example. Btw, we can disagree and I can still wish you the best.

Cretins
Cretins
Reply to  Melissa
9 days ago

One of those dubious websites that appeals to scientific illiterates and plays loose with the facts not backed up by empirical data or credible studies. You mean like the CDC, WHO, & FDA websites?

Phillis
Phillis
9 days ago

Here’s the simple truth for the “not caring about the NNTV” – they don’t care, because it is their intention to inject every man, woman, and child on this planet. This is about an agenda, sadly that many are unable to process, and has nothing to do with the good health of our human family. The constant barrage of lies on the mainstream media, the learned helplessness, the data gymnastics that have been obvious to those who understand data, and the inability or unwillingness to dig further into the actual independent research and science produces a majority with cognitive dissonance. A “vaccine” (not that this is a vaccine) has NEVER previously been used DURING any pandemic ever. This is a really bad idea, because the vaccine will actually be causing the variants. Anyone who understands microbiology and did viruses 101 would understand this. Most people at the base of it are simply unable to believe that anti-human activities on this scale could actually occur. The truth will come, but I’m sad to say that may be too late for many.

h5mind
h5mind
9 days ago

“Honesty is like pregnancy- you either are, or you ain’t.” Pretending there is an actual novel virus without independent clinical isolation of the same is disingenuous at best. Every hypothesis which assumes Covid-19 exists, and is not simply co-opted data from regular seasonal flu, perpetuates the fraud and keeps the public grossly misinformed. The mRNA shot has a myriad of purposes, none of them good.

Kryptos
Kryptos
8 days ago

Wales, UK:
THE family of a “kind and caring” 14-year-old boy who “lit up every room” have been left reeling after his sudden death.
Vaccines being mandated in Wales
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/16815108/boy-lit-up-every-room-dies-suddenly/
Parents and Children being hoodwinked into thinking they are doing the right thing in vaccinating their loved ones.
Global decimation by New Babylon Elite, child sacrifice to Moloch

Last edited 8 days ago by Kryptos
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7 days ago

[…] has to stop! #Genocide #CovidVaccine #Vaccine dailyexpose.uk/2021/11/21/sci… Source by 🇺🇸MAGA – DJT – 17 – […]